FIRST PUBLISHED DEC 19, 2017
By Frank Sainworla, Jr fsainworla@yahoo.com
The Christmas season of this year, 2017 is expected to mark a sharp clash of history in Liberia, where the ballot or howbeit the urge for the ballot is set to reign over the bullet.
Less than a week from now on Sunday, December 24, 2017 makes it exactly 28 years since Charles Taylor’s National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL) launched what turned out to be one of Africa’s most brutal civil wars from neighbouring Ivory Coast.
By the time that war ended in 2003, some 250,000 lives had been lost in addition to the thousands of wounded and the massive destruction of properties, all triggered by a bitter elections dispute back in 1985.
Political opponents accused the soldier-turned politician, President Samuel Kanyon Doe of rigging the 2005 elections.
Disgruntled opposition politicians declined to use the courts but rather the barrel of the guns initially through the invasion through neighbouring Sierra Leone by the late Brigadier General Thomas Quinwonkpa, who staged an abortive coup against Doe on November 13, 1985.
Then, there were two schools of thought. One was led by the late champion of modern multiparty Democracy in Liberia, Gabriel Baccus Matthews who insisted that the constitutional recourse should be sought to unseat Doe, while the hawks on the other side of the political divide said Doe would never have held credible democratic election due in 1990-1991 but force was the only language he understood.
Thus, they procured the arms and ammunition and rallied behind the bravest of their comrades, former Doe exiled General Services Agency (GSA) Director General Charles Taylor who led the NPFL rebel insurgency.
Political/ballot Christmas
Now, in sharp contrast to Christmas Eve of 1989, the Christmas Eve and the day after Christmas 2017 is expected to see the ballots taking precedence over the bullet, as some 2.1 million registered Liberian voters are due to go to the polls in a delayed presidential runoff election.
Dubbed “political Christmas” next Tuesday, December 26, 2017 runoff is expected to be held between the two candidates with the highest votes in the disputed October 10 first round polls—incumbent Vice President Joseph Boakai of the governing Unity Party (UP) and former football legend-turned politician George Weah of the main opposition Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC).
Notwithstanding the tensions sparked by legal complaints claiming massive fraud and gross irregularities by Charles Brumskine’s Liberty Party (LP) backed by UP and their political collaborators, the polls dispute has been limited to a battle in the court, unlike in 1985. The handover of power required by the Liberian constitution is due around mid-January 2018.
If all goes well and the constitutional timeline is not missed, the incumbent elected President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf is to turn over power to another elected president, hopefully marking the first time since 1944 that Africa’s oldest independent nation will have a peaceful democratic transition.
Learning bitter lessons from the past
Whoever gets elected will have to tackle two key precursors of the long years of violent civil conflict that not even the 12 years of the silence of the guns and relative peace have been able to addressed, as President Sirleaf herself admitted some time ago—corruption and lack of national reconciliation.
As they say, the writing is on the wall, with political and socio-economic developments here proving that little or no lessons have been learned from a long-running and brutal civil war in Liberia. While scholars are studying emerging conflicts, there are increasing fears in some quarters about the potential of the old conflict reemerging that brought this country to its knees.
Early warning
But first, before one begins to talk about or highlight emerging conflict issues, one must understand the nature of conflict. Scholars say conflict is synonymous to dispute, quarrel, squabble, disagreement, dissension, clash.
Conflict is a serious disagreement or argument; sometimes it can be protracted. Major dictionaries all point to conflict being strong disagreement.
Merriam-Webster: a struggle for power, property, etc.; strong disagreement between people, groups, etc., that results in often angry argument…
Cambridge dictionary: an active disagreement between people with opposing opinions or principles.
Experts in conflict analysis say though conflict is inevitable, it can be prevented. They also say, “Early warning is an essential first step for conflict prevention.”
Liberia’s root causes
In order to resolve any conflict, one must be able to identify the root causes of that conflict, which was done in Liberia’s case with the investigation of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) that completed its work in 2009 after tens of millions of US dollars were invested in few years of research.
The TRC was essentially set up to identify the root causes of Liberia’s long years of civil conflict dating back to 1979—the country’s first bloody street riot that preceded the first military coup in April 1980 with the assassination of one of Liberia’s most liberal and development-oriented presidents, Dr. William R. Tolbert, Jr.’
Root causes identified were: corruption, poverty, inequality, abuse of power, greed for power and wealth.
TRC recommendations to prevent another conflict
The TRC in its final report recommended that transitional justice mechanism be instituted. Other recommendations include:
– Sanctions for 30 years on certain figures-noninvolvement in politics for financial and other backers of armed factions (President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf et al)
– Prosecution for former warlords and those bearing the greatest responsibility for the 14 years of brutal civil war that claimed the lives of some 250,000 people
– Reparation of Liberia’s war victims
– Palava hut method with community involvement
– Perpetrators publically confess and ask for forgiveness
Have root causes been addressed at all?
NO is the answer of course. Where is rampant corruption today? Where is greed for wealth/abuse of power? Where is inequality? Where is injustice? Is the poverty level lower in Liberia lower than the advent of the civil conflict?
Today we stand as the eleventh poorest country in the world and the third poorest in Africa, ranking among Central African Republic (CAR) and Guinea Bissau.
Liberia’s (Human Development Index) HDI value for 2014 is 0.430— which put the country in the low human development category— positioning it at 177 out of 188 countries and territories.
Not even reparation for war victims
There are thousands of Liberia’s war victims, some of whom are confined to wheelchair. So far, the TRC report has been swept under the carpet, something many political observers see as being for selfish reasons.
But the cries of Liberia’s war victims are resounding and the blood of the 250,000 precious lives are also crying out for justice backed by the TRC findings and recommendations.
The media have a very crucial role to engage in good Journalism that would promote good governance, safety, peace-building, accountability and inspire positive change; by flagging those issues in the first place that brought about the civil crisis that the TRC mentioned.
By flagging those issues, people would be reminded of the need to learn from the bitter lessons from the past. Such would create the platform to highlight the early warning signs.
Are the media flagging the issues? Yes, but some critics say not as extensively within the context of establishing the link to root causes and triggers that preceded the conflict of all conflicts (14 years of fratricidal civil crisis).
To a large extent, Liberia has been enjoying some eleven years of peace since the guns went silent in 2003.
But the old adage says “peace is not just the absence of war.” Experts say long term peace cannot be sustained in the absence of addressing the root causes of the conflict; putting in place mechanisms to prevent resurgence or sparking of new conflict of similar nature. Wounds won’t be healed if honest efforts are not made to address the root causes.
Indeed, the media can serve as important tool to foster peace-building and national reconciliation.
A great Journalism scholar once said: “Journalists are here to warn and not to bite…to remind the public of impending danger.”
Experts in conflict analysis say “Early warning is an essential first step for conflict prevention”.
Peace-building and conflict resolution experts (including the UN) have done a lot of studies of conflict and early warning signs in post war Liberia, which the media should more vigorously play up and follow up on.
“In late 2010, the Liberia Peace-building Office, with support from Humanity United, led the formation of an organizational network now referred to in Liberia as the Early Warning and Early Response Working Group (EWER-WG).
EWER-WG, through a conflict analysis and forecasting process, identified four priority issues namely; land, borders, youth and drug use/abuse. “These issues stand out as major contributing factors to the possible outbreak of violence,” EWER-WG said.
Another study was done on the Patterns of Conflict and Cooperation in Liberia in February 2012. “Conflict early warning remains an important but elusive goal in Liberia. If outbreaks of violence could be predicted before they occur, early responders could focus their energies and scarce resources on the highest-risk communities,” the report said.
Taking cue, putting our house in order
Indeed, land, borders, youth and drug use/abuse are being compounded by the other issues listed in the TRC report (rampant corruption, abuse of power, etc, with the potential to plunge the nation in another civil crisis.
Not too long before the end of her tenure in Liberia, former UN SRSG Ms. Karin Landgren reminded the Liberian government and people that the fault lines that triggered the conflict have not disappeared and that they (we) should address “the root causes of fragility”.
In one of my newspaper pieces back in May 2015 this writer reminded Liberia of the urgent need to heed the UNMIL chief’s caution.
Most recent ECOWAS caveat
Just days ago, one of the ECOWAS heads of state, Ghanaian President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo was in Liberia to address the 98th commencement convocation of the state owned university and gave a stark warning to the people of this nation that the sub-regional grouping won’t allow Liberia to slide back into instability and violence.
Akufo-Addo, who actively helped to broker Liberia’s peace in the 1990s when he served as Ghanaian Foreign Minister, explained that “democracy must ensure that we are able to provide our people with a good quality of life.”
He warned that West Africa has over the years made huge investment in promoting peace in Liberia.
“We will do all we can to ensure that democracy is entrenched in Liberia and will not accept any other outcome,” the Ghanaian leader said.
President Akufo-Addo said the December 7, 2017 Supreme Court of Liberia ruling on the presidential election must ensure that Liberia will have its first handover of power.
And judging by conversations on the streets here in Liberia, this reflects the general view of Liberians, who are willing to forego all the pleasures associated with the festive Christmas season to exercise their democratic franchise on Tuesday, December 26, 2017.
The first round of vote on October 10, 2017 was as peaceful as it could get, something many hope could be repeated in the pending runoff.
Surely, not well meaning Liberia with knowledge of the ugly lessons from the past would want October 10 to be the calm before the storm.