-The regime has become a two-faced machinery, expressly dishonest, deceptive and insincere
By Josiah Flomo Joekai, Jr. BA, MA
Introduction
It is no doubt that Liberia’s current state of affairs has attracted tremendous domestic and global attention. Although President George Oppong Weah did not inherit a rosy economy, the last ten months under his watch has worsened the already harsh and unbearable economic situation in the country.
The inability of the government to institute appropriate measures in the immediate term to address the worsening economic situation has imposed serious hardship and suffering on the people.
This undesirable trend has generated so much anxiety and apprehension amongst the citizenry. Of course, dissatisfaction and acrimony are growing and every well-meaning Liberian is seriously concerned about this appalling situation.
The reason is simple. The business climate is unfavorable evidenced by the reported decline in supply of major commodities such as food items, gasoline and fuel oil thus failing to measure up to the increasing demands.
This has caused hike in prices in all spheres of the business sector. Education, healthcare and transportation services are either in short supply or nonexistent, thereby making their costs astronomically high.
Job creation remains unlikely because employment/hiring agencies, particularly business houses are rapidly scaling down their activities in the country, due to continuous loss and the lack of prospects for growth. Similarly, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) remains impractical. There has been no significant practical Foreign Direct Investment with the potential to boost the economy by contributing to revenue generation and creation of jobs. Initial attempts to attract Foreign Direct Investment have almost proven unsuccessful because of their dubious and dishonest nature.
Another dimension of this unacceptable reality is the solid inclination of the Weah administration to the engrained culture of corruption and impunity. The regime has become a two-faced machinery, expressly dishonest, deceptive and insincere. In less than ten months, the government has demonstrated lack of integrity and credibility reflective of the President’s untruthful promises and the deep romance of his government with bribery, kickback, conversion and diversion of public resources into their individual use. Governing on such dangerous premise has serious implications for the future of Liberia.
It is no surprise that the major features or landmarks of the ten-month road traveled by Team-Weah are his dictatorial moves to arrogate authority onto himself by silencing the Judiciary, Legislature and Media; the blatant violation of the laws, especially those of the Public Procurement and Concession Commission, Code of Conduct for Public Officials and Acts creating certain integrity institutions in order to access private loan financing in the magnitude of US$1 billion and award road construction contract to his personal friend, Burkinabe Businessman, Mamadou Boukoungou.
The other dimension of his deceitful features is the reported $16 billion Liberian Dollar Banknotes scandal, the pocketed US$25 million intended to mop up the economy and unending mislaid promises of building coastal highway, a new Monrovia, the so-called military hospital and unrealistic tuition-free public University and College education.
Contrary to President Weah’s incoherent and unrealistic development approach, we all know that a genuine development model is one anchored on well-established policy that addresses the fundamental questions of what, why, where, when and how? Conversely, the current government’s development approach simply lies in the tongue of the President. Whatever he utters, becomes the policy with the strategic framework combined. Indeed, a sad moment for our country. Isn’t it?
Unfortunately, the only significant progress achieved not by the government but President Weah, is his personal projects. Under one year, the President has been able to demolished his 9th street compound that has been in a dilapidated state in Sinkor and remodeled it into a befitting palace. His compound of prestigious duplexes on the Roberts Field Highway is nearing completion while his Jamaican Resort has taken meaningful shape.
Obviously, such governing model is only applicable in an autocracy like the one currently being steered by a President like George Oppong Weah where he has invested millions into his private initiatives in the first year of his leadership while his people languish in abject poverty. So, it is true that Liberia has created a dictator, a true monster of their own; and it is likely that if the people remain so very passive as they are, the future of the country is bleak.
The unadulterated fact is that the economy is in a bad shape. It is one in a crashing mode. Liberia is amongst the five poorest nations of the world. The country’s HDI is 0.435 which is below the average of 0.504 for countries in the low human development group and also below the average for countries in Sub-Saharan countries (Human Development Index, 2018).
This repulsive economic standing accounts for the continuous downward changes in health, education and low or no income which is reflective of the persistent poor quality of life. There’s perpetual suffering and no credible forecasts that points to genuine revitalization of the economy in order to give the people meaningful life. Inarguably, the government of President Weah has demonstrated its inability by the lack of organization, inexperience and savoir-faire (i.e. know-how) to foster the recovery and growth of the country. So, restoring the country in the face of the fast pace dissipating image seems very unlikely.
Obviously, there’s an urgent national call. The call is a matter of urgency because Liberia needs its best minds to cross their political, social and ethnic boundaries for a collective response. The call is to address the longstanding political leadership decadence which is rapidly worsening at the hands of the current rookie President, George Oppong Weah. Weah has no credible corporate or political leadership experience to have been awarded the Presidency of the country. His background as a soccer genius and nothing beyond is in sharp contrast to the duties and functions of the office he serves. Weah’s entire life event has been within the perimeters of soccer playing and other forms of entertainment such as music and pageantry.
Venturing into politics in 2005 was simply considered by many politicians as a conduit for them to accomplish their selfish political schemas at the expense of ignorant Weah’s iconic standing. We all witnessed those desperations, especially the ones demonstrated by the likes of Amb. Winston Tubman, Cllr. Charles Walker Brumskine, Chief Jewel Howard-Taylor to appear on the ballot with then candidate Weah in the last three Presidential Elections. Of course, they all knew that Weah had absolutely nothing concrete to offer in the sphere of political governance in Liberia.
Today, the Vice President, Madam Jewel Howard-Taylor is seriously being confronted by her very inexperienced and insecure boss she contributed to making President. It beats people’s imagination that with her understanding of then candidate Weah’s limitations and unfitness for the Presidency, Madam Taylor graciously accepted to serve as his running mate to become Vice President. By all accounts, desperation is the only thing to blame.
I can record quite vividly, a top politician and corporate lawyer calling on his colleagues to unite behind candidate Weah in the runoff election between he (Weah) and Ellen in 2005. According to that politician, he didn’t view the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) as a traditional political party but a ‘Movement’.
He averred that it was better for them to support the CDC at the time in order to help manage the Movement (i.e. CDC) properly so that it doesn’t wipe them away in the future that which is today’s reality. Unfortunately, his colleagues turned down his call with each one pursuing his own agenda. True to his word and 13 years later, the Movement is in charge and if his words are anything to go by, the Movement is fast wiping them away. The sad thing is that the Movement doesn’t seem to only be wiping them away but also wiping away the very people who entrusted it with the mandate it has.
So, it is safe to say that out of selfishness and greed for power, those very politicians equally bear greater responsibility for the current state of affairs in Liberia. Their failure to unite against candidate Weah’s bid for the presidency on the basis of their political ideologies and in particular, for the common good of the country we’re stuck with the current Weah leadership experiment; a discomforting reality.
It is no doubt that Weah’s poor management of his personal initiatives such as a soccer team and sports store that he once owned in Liberia, and other foreign businesses in the United States were clear indications of the former soccer world best gross lack of leadership qualities. In fact, the rapid decline in his finances following his unparallel achievements in soccer land spoke to Weah’s inability to manage the economy of an already wearied nation like Liberia. The truth is that Weah himself needed financial resuscitation. So, he became very desperate for the Presidency and that was no surprise. In essence, making Weah President was like resuscitating a child in the state of melancholy. A decade later, we do not have to look any further for prove of Weah’s leadership deficit. His ten months performance in office as President is prove of the current level of shattered hopes and aspirations. Liberians deserve decent life but unfortunately, they may not just realize it in the years ahead under the watch of President Weah for all the reasons already mentioned.
Absolutely, the Weah leadership experiment has broken new grounds for another round of economic stagnation, deepened impoverishment and bad image as a country. We cannot allow this trend to continue beyond 2023. Otherwise, the implications will be further devastating.
- Facts you cannot Ignore
There are existing realities that no serious individual who is seriously considering to be a candidate in the 2023 Presidential Elections will ignore. Presently, there are four major opposition politicians who are factors to consider by all accounts. They are Amb. Joseph Nyuma Boakai, Cllr. Charles Walker Brumskine, Sen. Prince Y. Johnson and Mr. Alexander B. Cummings. As such, it is fundamentally important to fully understand their strength and weaknesses moving forward.
Taking into account the results of the 2017 Presidential Elections, Amb. Joseph Nyuma Boakai of the Unity Party (UP) obtained 446,716 or 28.8% of the total valid votes cast in the first round and 457,579 or 38.5% of the total valid votes cast in the second round (Liberian General Elections, 2017). These numbers are very impressive and do reflect the reality at the time. However, one needs to understand that some of the factors responsible for the former Vice President’s impressive numbers do not exist currently which may adversely affect his bid if he considers running in subsequent Presidential Elections.
He’s no longer Vice President to command the impressive universal attraction and support he once enjoyed. Age plus the collective guilt of being number two in Ellen’s government are potential factors that may further shrink those numbers to some extent. The latter was a serious factor in the last election and it is not going to change easily. It is a political weapon that may still confront the former Vice President.
Notwithstanding, Amb. Boakai is a decent statesman who still commands a great deal of respect from his County, Lofa and the other vote-rich Counties of Bong, Nimba, Margibi, Montserrado, Grand Bassa and the entire Western Region (i.e. Bomi, Grand Cape Mount and Gbarpolu) of the Country. In particular, amongst the old generation of voters, Boakai remains their choice as far as preference for the Presidency is concerned. The Boakai factor is extremely important for any serious candidate to consider in the equation for 2023.
Cllr. Charles Walker Brumskine of the Liberty Party (LP) received 149,495 or 9.6% of the total valid votes cast (Liberian General election, 2017). Cllr. Brumskine is an experienced politician who has participated in the last three Presidential Elections in Liberia. He has managed to maintain his based reflective of his position and number of votes obtained in the 2017 elections.
These numbers have not shifted significantly from the previous ones obtained in the two elections before 2017. It doesn’t look like they will experience any significant upward or downward change if he considers running for President in 2023 as well. In essence, Brumskine remains a key factor because he knows how to preserve his base. The Counties of Grand Bassa, Rivercess, Margibi and Montserrado will always remain a belt that is politically kind to Brumskine. He is ultimately another factor to consider seriously.
A candidate who is unique in his own class is Sen. Prince Y. Johnson of the Movement for Democracy and Reconciliation (MDR). Sen. Johnson obtained 127,666 or 8.2% of the total valid votes cast (Liberian General election, 2017). Nimba County where Sen. Johnson comes from, has voted for the Senator overwhelmingly in the last three Presidential Elections. Nimbaians have demonstrated a clear picture of tribal politics as was demonstrated by Lofians when they voted for the first time almost 100% for their kinsman, Amb. Boakai in the 2017 election. In Nimba, voting for Sen. Johnson has become a cultural matter. That’s exactly why the trend has not changed and it is likely that it may not change in the future if Sen. Johnson gets the opportunity to contest the Presidency again.
Nimba County is a vote-rich county like Lofa, Bong, Nimba, Margibi and Grand Bassa that remains a factor in deciding who becomes President in Liberia. Sen. Johnson’s support to candidate Weah in the 2017 election earned he (Weah) a significant chunk of the votes from Nimba for which the Senator was appropriately, politically recompensed.
Similarly, in 2011, respectively, Sen. Johnson’s support to Madam Sirleaf was crucial in landing her the presidency. Therefore, Sen. Johnson is presently considered a “king maker” in Liberian contemporary politics relying solely on his entrenched tribal politics. Keep in mind that Sen. Johnson and Nimbaians are inseparable irrespective of his infamous and despicable records. It is seriously baffling and incomprehensible that as insane as Sen. Johnson is, he remains a figure making determination of who assumes the presidency of our country.
However, there are evolving narratives to consider. If the current pressure to establish a special tribunal in the form of war and economic crimes court for Liberia to prosecute perpetrators of war and economic crimes from 1979-2003 succeeds, that may shatter Sen. Johnson’s chances of being a participant in the 2023 elections. In that case, the voting trend in Nimba will change dramatically thereby creating new corridors for other candidates to share into the County’s vote wealth.
Nonetheless, if Sen. Johnson survives this call for prosecution of war and economic criminals, he will emerge as a hero and that will further strengthen his support base in Nimba. Such development will have implications for other candidates in Nimba county and eventually, our democracy because the trust and confidence level will grow and his base will equally expand in Nimba. In that no one in the country will become President without Sen. Johnson’s acquiescence of approval.
The newest sensation on the Liberian political landscape is Mr. Alexander B. Cummings of the Alternative National Congress (ANC). Mr. Cummings received 112,067 or 7.2% of total valid votes cast (Liberian General Election, 2017). Mr. Cummings surge in the polls to obtain more than 100,000 votes on his first attempt to become President, especially amongst young and active voters is an indication of prospects for his candidacy in 2023. He can build on this accomplishment to attract all categories of voters in the country. Like Boakai and Brumskine, he has credible corporate leadership experience which propels him for the job.
However, his advantage over the two are his age, resource independence as it may seem taking note from 2017, connections with the corporate world and demonstrated contemporary leadership competency. These qualities resonate very well with contemporary political governance.
However, the downside is the challenge of the old generation of voters who are vote-committed to the two individuals (i.e. Boakai and Brumskine) on one hand and Nimba County which is stuck with Sen. Johnson on the other hand. So, Mr. Cummings is also viewed by the old generation of voters and many politicians in the country as an outsider and threat to their chances at the same time. For now, there are no credible indications that these trends are going to change easily. What might even make the situation complex is when Ambassador Boakai and Cllr. Brumskine renew their interest in contesting the 2023 Presidential Election. So, Cummings is another serious factor to consider.
So, it is prudent to the to view all of these candidates as potential contenders for the 2023 Presidential Election. If that is the case as it seems, then, none of them has a clear chance of winning the 2023 presidential election alone against President George Oppong Weah, the rising dictator. They all have constituencies that are firmly stuck with them. For some of them, it is a life-time commitment. What makes this even difficult for any of them to consider embarking on the process as a single candidate is the fact that he or she will be up against a celebrity President whose actions, no matter the nature, are viewed by his defined support based as appropriate. Even though his support base may shrink at some point in time but it will only become an advantage to the opposition provided they are united against the incumbent.
- Understanding the real Challenge
Nic Cheeseman of the University of Birmingham and Brian Klaas of the London School of Economics and Political Science (2018) underscored that if a government wants to be considered a respectable democracy on the world stage, it must pass the litmus test of holding multiparty elections. But while more elections are being held around the world than ever before, the average quality of democracy around the world has fallen for the last 10 years. According to Nic and Brian, authoritarian leaders have learned how to rig elections (Nic and Brian, 2018). Looking into flawed elections in Belarus, Kenya, Thailand, Uganda, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe the two researchers established that there are various kinds of rigging strategies ranging from excluding opposition candidates from the ballots to getting the dead to vote.
So, winning an incumbent, especially in Africa where if not all, many of the leaders are tyrants has always proven difficult. For many of them, the strategy is very simple. All they do is to silence democratic and accountability institutions so that they are the ultimate authority. Like that, they can organize many elections as they wish, they will not be easily defeated. So, unseating them has never been smooth and in many instances have had devastating consequences for their people and country.
There are many of such countries but just to name few that are confronted by this dilemma or suffered the devastating consequences of change of tyrannical regimes are Cote d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Kenya, Angola, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Sudan, Mali, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
So, if George Oppong Weah remains in power up to 2023, running against him as an incumbent will be a monumental task. The first thing is that the playing field will not be leveled as the President is now weakening all of the institutions needed to strengthen our democracy to guaranteeing credible elections. Going after the Judiciary, the Legislature and Media is a priority of any dictator and of course, it is a priority of President Weah too. So, you need not ask me who then is President in this context. The fact is that Weah feels very insecure by his limitations, gross under performance and inability to surmount the challenges confronting his government and the growing dissatisfaction in the country. Absolutely, he is the newest dictator on the blog.
For the President, the independence of the other two branches of government will further expose his weaknesses thereby undermining his leadership. President Weah knows also that giving integrity institutions such as the National Elections Commission, General Auditing Commission, Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission, and Liberia Extractive Industry Transparency International the independence to function consistent with the Acts establishing them will definitely keep him in check. For a government such as his that is embroiled with scandals and abuse of power of various sorts doesn’t need to be checkmated. So, President Weah will go all out to ensure that there are no independent functions in his government to the extent that generates parallel power.
One has to be mindful of the optimism on the part of the CDC and supporters of Weah that he’s in power for 12/24 years. This demonstrated assurance coming just less than a year in his Presidency is not based on any development indicators or decent leadership attributes. So, the optimism is not professed by accident. It is part of their long-term plan and the way to achieve it is not to grow the economy, give Liberians decent lives and improve the country’s image internationally.
Rather, it is guaranteed by the measure of wealth President Weah and his cohorts are acquiring at the expense of the poverty-ridden masses, the silencing of the other two branches of government and putting integrity institutions at will and pleasure of the President. This is typical of the larger African dictatorship mechanism which keeps leaders in power perpetually against the will of the people. The trend has been birthed in Liberia again and it is getting deeply rooted with ease.
Hence, the President’s actions are solely intended to keep his grips on power at his will. Consequently, these actions of the President will directly impact the outcome of the 2023 elections simply to make the process impossible for the opposition. We all have to understand that tempering or rigging elections doesn’t begin with altering results, but tempering with the authority of institutions designed to guarantee the delivery of credible elections. President Weah and his cronies are fully aware of this mechanism and they’re not leaving any stone unturned. That is exactly the basis for their early anti-democratic actions.
On a serious note, Liberians, especially opposition politicians have to come to the realization that President Weah will not demonstrate any will to embrace the establishment of war and economic crimes court for Liberia. It is a process that will ultimately undermine his bid for re-election.
His key political benefactors are indicted by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s (TRC) report thus qualifying them for prosecution (FrontPage Africa, 2018). The endorsement of the court by Weah is equivalent to willfully destroying his electoral springboard. This process will not be achieved if Weah is left with the option to decide.
Therefore, the opposition should consider this as an imperative to collectively embark on a ‘one voice campaign’ to evoke international pressure on the Weah government which will eventually coerce the President to endorse the establishment of the court. This must be the beginning sign of victory for the opposition in that it will remove some of the major roadblocks to credible elections; and eventually set the stage for victory for the people of Liberia on the other hand because the journey to put an end to the entrenched culture of corruption and impunity will commence. On the contrary, if nothing is done to salvage the situation, Weah and his boys will delightfully succeed. The rest will become history and Liberia’s fate will be anybody’s guess. Nope, that must be no option for the opposition.
- Is an Opposition Win possible in 2023?
Firstly, it is important to know that most incumbents who lose election have endured scandals, neglected their office, reneged on their promises, showed arrogance, ignored or demonstrated insensitivity to their people’s conditions. It means that they have also been outspent or out-organized by the opposition, or faced a demographic or numerical shift that made the field favorable for a challenge from the opposition. Well, is that the emerging reality in Liberia?? Well. It is up to all of us to determine. However, capitalizing on such factors can put the opposition in a position to defeat an incumbent. However, that may not be a guarantee because there are other factors that are pre-requisites to benefitting from such occasion.
In the case of Liberia, a rainbow coalition will benefit from such factors so very easily because the votes will be consolidated to surpass the incumbent’s, resources will be smartly combined and utilized to outspend the incumbent and the voice of the opposition will be powerful to checkmate the incumbent and instill fear in the Electoral Management Body to engender transparency and fairness in all aspects of the electoral process. With such ideal formula in place, the opposition can capitalize on the failures and excesses of the incumbent to win the impending 2023 election.
Joe Fuld (2017) of the Campaign Workshop Blog, How to beat an Incumbent, emphasizes that before an opposition sets out to beat an incumbent, there are fundamental questions it should ask itself (i.e. incumbent) and definitely, the appropriate answers will put the opposition on the winning trajectory.
- Is the incumbent insensitive or unresponsive?
- Do you (i.e. opposition) have something the country really needs?
- Does the incumbent have a scandal?
- Is the incumbent arrogant?
- Has the incumbent gone back on promises?
- Is there a lack of support for the incumbent?
- Is there significant organization against the incumbent?
- Will people publicly stand up against the incumbent?
- Can you outspend the incumbent?
- Are the numbers in your favor?
- Have numbers (Incumbent and Opposition) changed over time?
- Will you be able to make a real contrast (Lead differently from the incumbent)? If yes, how?
- Do you know your numbers?
- Do you have the right team?
- Do you have a clear vision for the office?
These questions are standard and have been used persistently, mainly opposition to plan political strategies globally. And they have contributed significantly to opposition candidates and coalitions in unseating incumbents of different qualities. Absolutely, putting these questions in the Liberian context and responding to them appropriately as a united opposition to formulate a winnable roadmap will definitely pull the trigger and the opposition will eventually unseat President Weah in 2023. Like I emphasized earlier, none of the four candidates-Boakai, Brumskine, Johnson or Cummings will singlehandedly unseat President Weah in 2023. Although for now, they represent the known opposition candidates to challenge President Weah but none can pull the votes needed to land them the Presidency.
The danger that lies in the failure of the opposition to unite and rescue the Liberian people from the looming peril will also see the emergence of new political parties to feature additional candidates. Some of those parties will be created by the incumbent to further divide the votes in order to significantly reduce the opposition votes in the first round. Those newly created candidates will then return the votes to the incumbent during a possible runoff which is always the case. So, the actualization of a united opposition will definitely discourage such move by the incumbent and even people with the thought of venturing in the race because doing so will obviously prove futile given the strength of a united opposition. The opposition candidates should be very mindful not to give in to the concept of ‘let everyone go independently for the first round and then, in the event of a runoff we can support one candidate’. The concept has no guarantee. The deceptions and dishonesty demonstrated during the past three elections should be lessons enough to discourage such thoughts. It has not worked and there is no assurance that it will work this time. Strike the deal and win it on the first ballot. That’s the only guarantee the opposition has.
Otherwise, who knows?? Probably, I may just become one of those newer and potential candidates to commence my journey to the Presidency as well but not as a candidate created by the incumbent. Obviously, if that happens, I will be a very qualified candidate with everything it takes to be a decent and productive President in terms of having the education, experience, and reputation to lead the charge.
So, it is advisable for the opposition to take advantage of this window to forge a common opposition agenda. There will be all forms of distractions mainly from the incumbent to prevent that from happening for the very reasons we have outlined herein. Opposition candidates need to remain focused and determined than ever before to achieve this ultimate milestone. Many ways to go about it. Use the expertise at your disposal. The future of Liberia depends on it. That’s why the opposition needs to do the sacrifice by putting this above their individual interests to save Liberia. You need to use your charms and that entails deploying all of the domestic and international connections, resources where necessary and the recruitment of potential supporters with the skills, experience and commitment you need to make this a reality.
Don’t give up by any measure or give in to any defeatist thought in the process. Remain positive because it is possible and worthy. Further to that, the opposition should make sure that such alliance or coalition is formally recognized by the National Elections Commission following consummation by the parties concerned. Liberians will not take ‘NO’ for an answer. So, if the opposition reneges on this call, they may as well abandon their quest for the Presidency in 2023.
About the Author
The Author is a Liberian writer and development practitioner with expertise in the areas of election management, education and security administration.
References
Human Development Indices and Indicators: 2018 Statistical Update (2018). Retrieved from http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data
Fuld, Joe (2017). How to beat an incumbent. The Campaign Workshop Blog. Retrieved from http://www.theworkshop.com//how-beat-incumbent
Liberian General Election (2017). Retrieved from https://en.m.wikipedia.org
Cheeseman, Nic and Klaas, Brian (2018). How autocrats rig elections to stay in power and get away with it. Retrieved from https://www.theconversation.com.cdn.amproject.org
FrontPage Africa Newspaper (2018). Nearly 10 Yeasr on TRC Report still Dominates Liberian Politics. Retrieved from https://www.frontpageafricaonline.com.cdn.amproject.org