In The October 2023 Presidential Election
PHOTO: (L-R) Pres. George Weah and Presidential aspirant Cllr. Tiawan Gongloe
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS-A statistical analysis by a United States-based Liberian expert is forecasting that Counselor Tiawan Saye Gongloe and President George Manneh will most likely be the two final contenders in the second round of the highly anticipated 2023 presidential election.
“Based on my calculation, I project that Tiawan is poised to win 28% [+/-], putting him in the run-off,” the analyst emphasized, noting that Mr. Alexander B. Cummings is also “expected to improve significantly—adding another 12% [+/-] to his 2017 performance.”
In a recent critical analysis, which studied the historical pattern and trend of Liberia’s post-conflict elections in the past 18 years since 2005, Attorney Wonderr Koryenen Freeman is projecting that Counselor Gongloe, Standard-Bearer of the Liberian People’s Party and Political Leader of the Gongloe Global Movement will likely garner 28 percent of the first round votes, with President George Manneh Weah edging about 26 percent, followed by former Vice President Joseph Nyumah Boakai, with 20 percent and Mr. Alexander B. Cummings, 19 percent.
A professional Liberian Lawyer, Attorney Freeman holds several post- graduate and profession credentials (CFCS, LLM, MBA. WK) is a trade/investment attorney, forensic accountant, political economist, and financial crimes expert, currently residing in Brooklyn, New York, USA.
“From this data, it’s also very clear that the 2023 election will go to a second round”, Atty. Freeman, adds, “President Weah can never win any presidential election that goes to 2nd round” and in the anticipated 2023 elections.
He said it will be very difficult for any type of political alliance to rescue the sitting President, considering the dismal performance of his administration in the past five years. “No coalition can save George Weah now. He is the incumbent; he must run on his own record as President”, the investment attorney and forensic accountant contended.
Mr. Freeman reasoned that historically, the highest electoral percentage point President Weah has been able to singularly garner as a presidential candidate is 28 percent, which was in 2005, during the first post-conflict presidential election involving him and 21 other candidates, including candidate Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, the eventual winner of the second round vote.
He said any percentage point beyond 28, President Weah needs to join forces with other politicians, even though since he won the 2017 presidential election through a three-party coalition, he has been ruling like he had won a massive mandate from the electorate, because has been marginalizing other parties within his coalition.
The Liberian exper noted that in 2005 when Mr. Weah as a candidate won 28 percent of the votes, he was still a sort of political shining star, even though his leadership quality was still unknown to the Liberian people at the time. Arguing that based on available statistical data, President Weah has not been an overwhelmingly popular political figure as many of his followers claim, he added, “As far as these numbers tell me, after five years of a disastrous presidency, George is heading south of 28%, possibly 25% [+/-]…”
Atty. Freeman’s projection that Counselor Gongloe and President Weah will likely be the two second round candidates in the 2023 election seems to be contrary to “conventional sentiments” currently prevailing in Liberia, especially among supporters of former Vice President Boakai, who apparently believe that the presidency is his, for him to easily snatch away from President Weah in 2023.
But contrary to such notion, Mr. Freeman intimates that a lot has changed since 2017, which may not necessarily be to the political benefit of Mr. Boakai and that the longtime politician might even lose up to 10 percent of the votes.
Since Counselor Gongloe, a topnotch human rights lawyer, declared his presidential candidacy on December 4, 2021, some of the sentiments being expressed is that he’s a “late comer” and does not have money to campaign. In spite of such perception about his financial limitation, primarily due to his well-known integrity and impeccable character, Counselor Gongloe is proving to be an indefatigable candidate who is keen on taking power to the people.
According to Mr. Weah Karpeh, Executive Director of the Team Gongloe movement, the LPP Standard-Bearer has so far, visited more than 221 cities, towns and villages in Bong, Grand Bassa, Lofa, Nimba and Rivercess Counties since he was elected as Standard-Bearer of the Liberian People’s Party on September 16, 2022. On December 29, 2021, barely four weeks after declaring his intention to seek the presidency, Counselor Gongloe and his wife visited Pour’s Town in Grand Gedeh County where they received a rousing welcome, joining fellow compatriots to usher in the year 2022 at the time. Report by Contributing Writer Joe Bartuah